Last week was a little disappointing, as we closed the week 1-2, bringing the year’s total record to 9-6. While this isn’t exactly where I want (us) to be, it could be much worse.
I got into writing for this website because I genuinely have fun in both victory and defeat when it comes to picking games. In addition to playing some games on the side, I’ve been in a family football pool for about a decade and, while there isn’t exactly money changing hands from week-to-week, there is a decent amount of money included in final rankings. Every year it seems to be the same: strong weeks of .500+, but not enough to win the week. I’ll end up in the top 1/3 most years, sometimes winning some cash, sometimes missing out. Every year, there seems to be someone new leading the pack, then they fall off the next year. I’m happy that I’m (fairly) consistent in being above average according to this league’s final rankings, but it does get frustrating when you lose games that you just know you should win. This feeling is not based off cold hard stats, but just that intuition, that feeling in your gut.
When things go awry, some people will drastically alter their process. I, however, argue that you should be as consistent as possible, while still allowing some room to grow.
What I’m saying is, just shoot your shot. Do what you do because eventually, things will even out, as long as you’ve modeled yourself after the consistency you’ve experienced. I’m hoping we’ll return to last year’s success sooner rather than later.
Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings -9.5 (in London), O/U 38
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints -9, O/U 47.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets +5, O/U 45.5
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2, O/U 46
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles -13, O/U 46.5
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills -2.5, O/U 45.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals -10.5, O/U 41.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots -7, O/U 48.5
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5, O/U 45.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins +2, O/U 49
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions +3, O/U 45.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs -7, O/U 43
Chicago Bears +9: THE BEARS ARE BACK. Kidding, but that defense is realllllly good. While going down to New Orleans with a rookie QB is going to be a challenge, I think the defense will keep it closer than expected. Saints will probably win, but I see Chicago covering.
New England-7: Dont'a Hightower is probably done for the season, so this bad defense just got worse. Still, the Patriots are the Patriots and that guy Tom Brady is still throwing TDs. I refuse to believe in the Chargers, at least for now. Take the Pats at home with confidence, or with caution. Either way, I won’t care.
Detroit Lions +3: Ugh, yet another team that seems so up and down every-other week. Then again, that’s every team. Detroit is coming off their bye and is a home dog. I’ve learned my lesson, have you? Lions straight up.
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter!