Week 7 in the NFL and we are sittin’ pretty at 8-4 in Best Bets, not too shabby if I say so myself. Last weekend we had the Rams and the Titans win, with the lone loss coming from Kansas City. If you’re like me and play a couple other games also, New Orleans vs. Detroit was a wild ride of emotions, and hopefully you were on the good side of that ride, unlike myself.
This is about the point of each season where you finally get a true feel of how each team is playing and what they are capable of. This time last year, New England and Cowboys were essentially winning picks every week. This year? Not so much. The team with the best record was Kansas City, but with two straight losses (including on Thursday night) one has to wonder if the Chiefs are really that good.
Enough of the talking, let’s get down to it.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns +6 (46.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (43.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (41)
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings -5.5 (39.5)
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins -3 (38.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills -3.5 (No O/U)
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears +3 (41)
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers +4.5 (47.5)
Arizona Cardinals v Los Angeles Rams (London) -3.5 (47)
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers +6 (46.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants +5 (40)
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers -1 (41)
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots -3.5 (56)
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (48.5)
Tennessee Titans -5.5: Mariota is still recovering from a hamstring injury, which could impact his play, but I’m still willing to take the Titans here. Remember how I said there aren’t too many teams that you can confidently bet on a week-to-week basis? Well the Browns are still one of the teams to bet against. Tennessee’s bread and butter lies in the run game, something Cleveland isn’t terrible against. Still, the one-two punch of DeMarco Murray, who is active but expected to be limited, along with Derrick Henry should still prove to be too much for the Browns to handle. Even though the Titans are ranked 31st in points against (giving up 57 to Houston really skewed the mean), I’m still willing to bet against a Browns team that keeps shuffling QBs.
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5: I think this will be a close game already, with a low projected total. Both defenses are top 5 in points against, which gives me some confidence that while the Bengals may lose, getting that 5.5 will help us cover. In addition, I think the general public still thinks the Bengals are the team that started 0-3. Aside from Week 1 at Baltimore, the Bengals have been within a touchdown in each loss (Weeks 2 and 3). Good defenses and low total? Take the 5.5.
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5: This game is projected to be a shootout, with a combined total of 48.5. Philly and Washington can both put up offense numbers, both averaging over 23 points per game, but the Eagles also boast a top 10 defense. Philly are looking like the real deal, whereas I’m not too sure about Washington. Primetime games tend to be a little screwy, but I think Philly will cover at home.
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter!