Danny Miller (Guest Writer)
As some of you may have already realized, I am not Mike Streb (thank God). He is currently getting roasted off the coast of Venezuela because there literally isn’t enough sunscreen in the world to protect him. He’ll be back next week to share his expertise (a generous word); in the meantime let’s hope for his safe return and that he doesn’t get swallowed up by hurricane Matthew McConaughey.
Now, to address the only question that matters: “Why should I listen to you?” WELL, I’m glad you asked. A few of you may know that the Milkman is my cousin. Every year our family and some family friends hold a competition that spans the entire NFL regular season. In this competition we all pick every NFL game against the spread. Prizes are awarded weekly for the person with the most wins and for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and last (because it’s just as hard to pick losers) at the conclusion of the season.
Peep the rank below. (This is out of 17 people, Mikey is tied for third if anyone is curious)
At this point there have been a total of 63 games (not including last night’s game). That puts me at winning percentage of 55%, which is what most professional sports betters aim for long term.
So if you feel safe in my soft, delicate hands let’s move on to the spreads.
At Minnesota (-7) – Houston – O/U 40.5
At Miami (-3.5) – Tennessee – O/U 43
At Cleveland – New England (-10.5) – O/U 46.5
At Pittsburgh (-7) – New York Jets – O/U 48
At Baltimore (-4) – Washington – O/U 45.5
At Detroit – Philadelphia (-3) – O/U 46
At Indianapolis (-4.5) – Chicago – O/U 48
At Denver (-4.5) – Atlanta – O/U 47
At Oakland (-3.5) – San Diego – O/U 51
At Dallas – Cincinnati (-1) – O/U 45
At Green Bay (-7) – New York Giants – O/U 48
At Car (-7) – Tampa Bay – O/U 46
Best Bets for Week 5
At Cleveland – New England (-10.5) - Tom Brady is back and he is ANGRY. A lot of people got burned by the Patriots last week, myself included, and this combined with a large spread may scare some people away - but fret not. Brady’s return marks the beginning of the end for every team on the Patriots schedule, and the poor, poor Cleveland Browns are the first victim.
Note: As of now Gronk is expected to play, just remains to be seen how much..
At Pittsburgh (-7) – New York Jets – The Jets are currently ranked 2nd in rushing defense (70.2 YPG) only behind the Green Bay Packers (42.7 YPG which is amazing by the way) The Jets have only played one running back of merit: Lesean McCoy in Week 2, and they held him to 80 yards total. Now, they get arguably the 2 best players in the league in Le’veon Bell and Toni Brown. I expect Toni to have a field day with the Jets passing defense that’s ranked 26th in YPG.
If You’re Feeling BALLSY
At Denver (-4.5) – Atlanta - Now, I know, Denver’s defense is incredible, but have you seen Atlanta’s offense this year? Matt Ryan is the number 1 quarterback and looks VERY comfortable in the new offense, Julio had 300 yards receiving last week and (I think/hope for fantasy’s sake) is officially back. Tevin Coleman has the sickle cell trait and will probably be on a snap count in high altitude Denver which means there will be less dynamism out of the backfield, but I think Freeman will manage. Archetype example of when an “unstoppable force meets and immovable object."
Well, that’s all I got. If you win, I’ll take all the credit and if not you should just blame Mikey. If you have any questions, feel free to tweet at me @Mannyxdiller. I don’t have an official FF account but just request me and I’ll follow back.
Good luck this week!