Mike Streb ft. Donald Gibson
Why is it that, as humans (and degenerate gamblers), we accredit ideas we find so simple to common sense?
You see an incredibly high point total line of 58 in a game between Cleveland and San Francisco and common sense will tell you to take the under. The problem is, most people do not obtain common sense, which makes it an oxymoron. What I’m suggesting is that there really is no such thing as common sense because common sense really isn’t all that common.
What one person interprets as understandable could be interpreted by another as insane. I understand, I’m getting too “wordy” for an article on gambling.
What about the numbers? Numbers and statistics are the key to figuring out the facts if common sense doesn’t work!
Well, not necessarily.
I’m going to attempt to describe two current playoff teams.
Team 1: A record of 6-2 at home and 5-1 in their division. This team shuffled through QBs over multiple games. This team also had the best division record by only one game.
Team 2: A record of 7-1 at home and 5-1 in their division, this team also shuffled through QBs for a short period during the season. This team dominated their division, recording 3 more divisional wins than the second place finishing team in their division.
Hmmmm, interesting. Team 1 and Team 2 are pretty similar, but I’d have to give the advantage at least partially to Team 2, right? Well the two teams I just described were New England (Team 1) and Houston (Team 2). Well that’s interesting, because New England is a HUGE favorite this week.
If you don’t understand what I just did, I basically just told you why you need our help at FantasyFusionSports. We are able to look past the “common sense” and (some) of the stats that won’t help you early in the season. Collectively, each author went 1-1 last week, bringing our yearly total to 24-13-3.
Let’s get to what you came for:
At Atlanta (-5) - Seattle - 51.5
At New England (-16) - Houston - 44.5
At Kansas City (-1.5) - Pittsburgh - 44
At Dallas (-4.5) - Green Bay - 52.5
Best Bets from Mike Streb:
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -4.5 O/U 52.5: Zeke’s got the freaks and that’s a known fact. Dallas should be able to run through the porous Packer defense. On the off chance that Zeke stinks this week (yea, right), Dak will have plenty of time to pick apart the secondary of Green Bay, which is very injured currently. Aaron Rodgers is on fire and it's never a good idea to bet against him, but I’m going to. In addition to choosing Dallas, I will also take the Under of 52.5. I personally think it’s too high for a game that will feature a lot of running with Zeke as well as TY Montgomery.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots -16: Yea, I’m totally doing it. Fun Fact: Did you know this is the largest favorite in a playoff game ever? It would be pretty wild to see Houston to pull the upset, but I don’t see it happening. If you remember, Houston played New England when Jacoby Brisket or whatever his name is filled in for Jimmy Garoppolo and New England still won 27-0. Maybe Houston can muster a few points this week? I still see the Pats covering though.
Best Bets from Donald Gibson:
Hey! I made it back! As with last week, I'm taking the other two games.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5): I referenced this on FantasyPros, but I view this game as a bit of an "unstoppable force meets immovable object" situation. We all know about the Seahawks defense, and, not surprisingly, they ranked fifth in the league in terms of yards allowed per game. On the flip side, the Falcons offense ranked second in the league in terms of yards per game. This is going to be a fun one, but I'm expecting to see the "Sputtering Offense Seahawks" as opposed to the "Sling The Ball All Over the Field and Score 45 Seahawks." Look it up. Those are real names. Atlanta grabs this one by a TD.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) against Kansas City Chiefs: I really wasn't sure what to think of this game, so I reverted to my thinking from earlier in the season. I've never been convinced that the Chiefs do anything particularly special on offense, and, while Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill lit the world on fire at the end of the regular season, I don't see a whole lot happening for KC in whatever icy conditions they're forced to weather. Also, can you imagine how many ankles Le'Veon Bell is going to break if he's playing on ice? I'll set the over under at 3.5 ankles (taking the over).
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter! (or @DonaldGibsonFF woohoo!)