Mike Streb ft. Donald Gibson
Well last week wasn’t fun if you took my advice on the Cowboys. Not only did Dallas not cover (obviously), but the total also hit the over fairly early in the game. That lost me a little bit of money. That’s okay though, as we have another great opportunity this weekend. Shooters shoot, so we’re gonna keep trying this weekend.
Let’s all thank Donald, who made last week more tolerable (betting wise, Donald kind of sucks to be around in general). He gave us another winning record as we went 3-2, bringing our yearly total to a collective 27-15-3.
I have a shit-ton of work to do, so let’s get on with it.
At Atlanta (-5) - Green Bay - 61
At New England (-6) - Pittsburgh - 50.5
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Mike's Pick: Atlanta -5
Atlanta is REALLY good and Green Bay doesn’t have a quality or even decent corner. Sharp money is heavy on Atlanta, which pushed the line from -4 to -5 and I can’t help but agree. I was debating on taking the under, as 61 is A LOT of points. I’m not willing to bet on the total, as I do expect a high total, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a normal point total. Vegas lost a lot of money last week, so I’m thinking this point total could be a decoy to make that money back. Call it a conspiracy, but the NFL and Vegas are in cahoots.
Donald's Pick: Green Bay +5
Can't do it. I can't bet against Aaron Rodgers. I couldn't do it last week, I couldn't do it two weeks ago, and I still can't. Rodgers may get Jordy Nelson back, and they haven't lost since the Industrial Revolution. I'm still on board.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Mike's Pick: New England -6
It’s not fun to take the favorites, but sometimes it’s just the right thing to do. Per @NFLResearch, Tom Brady is 5-1 with 19 TDs and 0 INTs, with a passer rating of 127.5. along with scoring 33.3 points per game in meetings versus the Steelers. I could see the total being over 50.5 based solely on that statistic. If you read last week’s article, you should know how I feel about blindly following statistics. With that being said, even if Brady can’t produce the kind of stats we’re used to seeing, I do see New England limiting Bell and Brown to human-type numbers, which usually means Pittsburgh will struggle. Take the Pats.
Donald's Pick: Pittsburgh +6
This pick has had me sweating all week, but I came to the conclusion that Pittsburgh will keep this one close. Aside from the QBs, the Steelers have the two best skill players in this game in Bell and Brown, and it's not close. We're in for a good one.
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter!