Hello, my friends.
This is it, unfortunately. We ended the fantasy season weeks ago. Now, sadly, the end of our gambling season has come into fruition. This is our last chance to gamble on the NFL until next season.
Alas, this week is the most exciting week of gambling, with only Week 1 rivaling the build-up. According to various media outlets (I saw it on Twitter, I’m sure there’s some data to support), Super Bowl weekend is the most heavily bet week of the NFL season. Wanna know why?
Ok, maybe it’s not just prop bets. It’s probably more due to the Super Bowl being the most watched NFL game every single season. Essentially, this means people will just throw money on the game because they’re kind of forced to watch it.
Regardless, there are 109 Prop Bets available to place wagers on this Super Bowl Weekend. You can find a list of every prop bet along with the opening odds on pretty much any media outlet.
Let it roll!
There are over 100 total prop bets for this weekend. Give them a look and see if you can bet a couple of friends or lose your house to a bookie, whichever. Also, if you’re interested in my pick this week, give @FantasyFusionFF a follow on Twitter. You’ll get my own pick as well as Donald’s.
Contact me on Twitter at @FFMilkman or leave a comment!
Mike Streb ft. Donald Gibson
Well last week wasn’t fun if you took my advice on the Cowboys. Not only did Dallas not cover (obviously), but the total also hit the over fairly early in the game. That lost me a little bit of money. That’s okay though, as we have another great opportunity this weekend. Shooters shoot, so we’re gonna keep trying this weekend.
Let’s all thank Donald, who made last week more tolerable (betting wise, Donald kind of sucks to be around in general). He gave us another winning record as we went 3-2, bringing our yearly total to a collective 27-15-3.
I have a shit-ton of work to do, so let’s get on with it.
At Atlanta (-5) - Green Bay - 61
At New England (-6) - Pittsburgh - 50.5
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Mike's Pick: Atlanta -5
Atlanta is REALLY good and Green Bay doesn’t have a quality or even decent corner. Sharp money is heavy on Atlanta, which pushed the line from -4 to -5 and I can’t help but agree. I was debating on taking the under, as 61 is A LOT of points. I’m not willing to bet on the total, as I do expect a high total, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a normal point total. Vegas lost a lot of money last week, so I’m thinking this point total could be a decoy to make that money back. Call it a conspiracy, but the NFL and Vegas are in cahoots.
Donald's Pick: Green Bay +5
Can't do it. I can't bet against Aaron Rodgers. I couldn't do it last week, I couldn't do it two weeks ago, and I still can't. Rodgers may get Jordy Nelson back, and they haven't lost since the Industrial Revolution. I'm still on board.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Mike's Pick: New England -6
It’s not fun to take the favorites, but sometimes it’s just the right thing to do. Per @NFLResearch, Tom Brady is 5-1 with 19 TDs and 0 INTs, with a passer rating of 127.5. along with scoring 33.3 points per game in meetings versus the Steelers. I could see the total being over 50.5 based solely on that statistic. If you read last week’s article, you should know how I feel about blindly following statistics. With that being said, even if Brady can’t produce the kind of stats we’re used to seeing, I do see New England limiting Bell and Brown to human-type numbers, which usually means Pittsburgh will struggle. Take the Pats.
Donald's Pick: Pittsburgh +6
This pick has had me sweating all week, but I came to the conclusion that Pittsburgh will keep this one close. Aside from the QBs, the Steelers have the two best skill players in this game in Bell and Brown, and it's not close. We're in for a good one.
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter!
Mike Streb ft. Donald Gibson
Why is it that, as humans (and degenerate gamblers), we accredit ideas we find so simple to common sense?
You see an incredibly high point total line of 58 in a game between Cleveland and San Francisco and common sense will tell you to take the under. The problem is, most people do not obtain common sense, which makes it an oxymoron. What I’m suggesting is that there really is no such thing as common sense because common sense really isn’t all that common.
What one person interprets as understandable could be interpreted by another as insane. I understand, I’m getting too “wordy” for an article on gambling.
What about the numbers? Numbers and statistics are the key to figuring out the facts if common sense doesn’t work!
Well, not necessarily.
I’m going to attempt to describe two current playoff teams.
Team 1: A record of 6-2 at home and 5-1 in their division. This team shuffled through QBs over multiple games. This team also had the best division record by only one game.
Team 2: A record of 7-1 at home and 5-1 in their division, this team also shuffled through QBs for a short period during the season. This team dominated their division, recording 3 more divisional wins than the second place finishing team in their division.
Hmmmm, interesting. Team 1 and Team 2 are pretty similar, but I’d have to give the advantage at least partially to Team 2, right? Well the two teams I just described were New England (Team 1) and Houston (Team 2). Well that’s interesting, because New England is a HUGE favorite this week.
If you don’t understand what I just did, I basically just told you why you need our help at FantasyFusionSports. We are able to look past the “common sense” and (some) of the stats that won’t help you early in the season. Collectively, each author went 1-1 last week, bringing our yearly total to 24-13-3.
Let’s get to what you came for:
At Atlanta (-5) - Seattle - 51.5
At New England (-16) - Houston - 44.5
At Kansas City (-1.5) - Pittsburgh - 44
At Dallas (-4.5) - Green Bay - 52.5
Best Bets from Mike Streb:
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -4.5 O/U 52.5: Zeke’s got the freaks and that’s a known fact. Dallas should be able to run through the porous Packer defense. On the off chance that Zeke stinks this week (yea, right), Dak will have plenty of time to pick apart the secondary of Green Bay, which is very injured currently. Aaron Rodgers is on fire and it's never a good idea to bet against him, but I’m going to. In addition to choosing Dallas, I will also take the Under of 52.5. I personally think it’s too high for a game that will feature a lot of running with Zeke as well as TY Montgomery.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots -16: Yea, I’m totally doing it. Fun Fact: Did you know this is the largest favorite in a playoff game ever? It would be pretty wild to see Houston to pull the upset, but I don’t see it happening. If you remember, Houston played New England when Jacoby Brisket or whatever his name is filled in for Jimmy Garoppolo and New England still won 27-0. Maybe Houston can muster a few points this week? I still see the Pats covering though.
Best Bets from Donald Gibson:
Hey! I made it back! As with last week, I'm taking the other two games.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5): I referenced this on FantasyPros, but I view this game as a bit of an "unstoppable force meets immovable object" situation. We all know about the Seahawks defense, and, not surprisingly, they ranked fifth in the league in terms of yards allowed per game. On the flip side, the Falcons offense ranked second in the league in terms of yards per game. This is going to be a fun one, but I'm expecting to see the "Sputtering Offense Seahawks" as opposed to the "Sling The Ball All Over the Field and Score 45 Seahawks." Look it up. Those are real names. Atlanta grabs this one by a TD.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) against Kansas City Chiefs: I really wasn't sure what to think of this game, so I reverted to my thinking from earlier in the season. I've never been convinced that the Chiefs do anything particularly special on offense, and, while Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill lit the world on fire at the end of the regular season, I don't see a whole lot happening for KC in whatever icy conditions they're forced to weather. Also, can you imagine how many ankles Le'Veon Bell is going to break if he's playing on ice? I'll set the over under at 3.5 ankles (taking the over).
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter! (or @DonaldGibsonFF woohoo!)
Mike Streb ft. Donald Gibson
In the last article, I spoke about trusting me in your time of need. I spoke about how close we had been in our relationship over the last few months. I informed you that I was ready to take “us” to the next level.
Then I abandoned you.
left you to flutter alone for two weeks. Hopefully you were able to stay afloat.
The last time we spoke, I left you with a perfect 3-0 record. Is it a surprise at this point anymore? We are 22-11-3 on Best Bets this year. That’s essentially 67% winning percentage when you don’t count the pushes. I’ve never said I was perfect, but we have been damn near close enough.
On a serious note, I want to thank you for sticking with us this year. As a first-year website, we’ve had our own struggles. If you’ve stuck with us from the beginning, thank you. If you’ve just started visiting us, thank you.
Next year, we’re aiming to bring a few more contributors into the fold in order to bring more content and opinion. I think it’s safe to say that we started the year out very hot, with articles almost every day, then we just kind of fizzled a little bit. Next year we will be better across the board, so I hope that you continue to make us one of the various sources of NFL information and, as always, we aim to be the best at replying to any questions or opinions. I will continue to offer my best inputs for the rest of the playoffs so please continue to check back.
Without further ado:
At Houston (-3.5) - Oakland - 36.5
At Seattle (-8) - Detroit - 43
At Pittsburgh (-10) - Miami - 46
At Green Bay (-4.5) - NY Giants - 44.5
Mike's Best Bets
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): Do I really think that Miami can win this game? Eh, not really. The amount of points being given right now is bananas though. If you are going to hop on this game, do it as soon as possible. If Tannehill is active, the line will shift from +10 to somewhere around +4 or +5.
Now let’s delve a little deeper into this game. Do I think Miami will win? No. Do I think Miami will run the ball effective enough to run out a lot of time early in the game while it’s close? Yes. Miami’s O-line is a week healthier which could be bad for Pittsburgh, though the Steelers have been much better against the run since Jay Ajayi ran all over them (204 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries). If Moore starts, expect Jarvis Landry to have a lot of targets and Devante Parker to go deep against a weak Pittsburgh secondary. I’ll take the Dolphins +10, but don’t expect them to actually beat the Steelers.
NY Giants @ Green Bay Packers -4.5: Everyone is talking about the Giants being the “surprise team” to advance deep into the playoffs. I never understood how a team can be a “surprise” to advance if everyone is saying the same thing. Or when Aaron Rodgers threw 40 TDs and 7 INTs in a season. Yea, I know the running game isn’t really convincing with Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael, but it’s effective enough when you have the best QB in the league.
In Green Bay on Sunday, there’s a projected high of 15 degrees with a low of 6 degrees. Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a calf injury which may make it more difficult to move around the pocket, especially in the freezing temperatures, but I’ll take the Packers -4.5.
Donald's Best Bets
I, uh, think I took a wrong turn somewhere. Can someone point me to the closest Friendly's? I'm in very serious withdrawal of a chocolate peanut butter cup sundae.
I offered to add a little bit to Mike's article because I already went through this thought process as I contributed to an against-the-spread article on FantasyPros which will be up...soon? No idea when really. Regardless, I'll take the two games left.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (-3.5): Man, this game is going to be fun. Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler for the first annual "How the hell did I get here?" trophy.
Considering the quarterbacks in this game, these offenses are pretty similar. They both have very solid receiving weapons, but it remains to be seen if their respective QBs can get them the rock. The running game is solid for both but isn't going to blow anyyone away.
Since the offenses are similar, I took them out of the equation, and thus it becomes a game of defense. Houston ranked first in the league in the regular season in terms of total yards allowed per game with 301.3. Oakland? 26th at 375.1. That's really the only separation I need.
Hopefully Brock can figure it out enough to limp across the finish line a victor.
Detroit Lions (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks: Similar to Mike's take about the Dolphins-Steelers game above, I think Seattle will win, but not by eight. The Lions lost seven games this year, but only two of them were by more than eight points.
Simply put, I think Matt Stafford will keep them in this game, and the Seattle offense has these random bouts of being just awful. Seattle wins, but not by much.
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter! (or @DonaldGibsonFF)
We’re coming close to the end of the 2016 NFL season and I hope you’ve begun to trust me, at least a little bit.
Think of each installment over this year as a progression of dates. We started out the season on a few little coffee dates, just feeling each other out. Maybe you cancelled a couple of dates because you weren’t ready for commitment. Maybe you thought you could find someone better. Maybe you can find someone better, but like I’ve said before, you won’t find someone better who will give you everything you could want for free.
If you’re reading this, it means you either committed to this healthy relationship we have or you decided to give me another chance. I’m not perfect, but our overall record of 19-11-3 speaks for itself. Ties don’t matter around here, as you don’t lose any money, so I don’t really factor them in when it comes to winning percentage. All in all, we have a winning percentage of 63.3%, better than the 55% average from most sites.
So now that our relationship has progressed, things are beginning to get serious. You like me, I like you and, to be honest, you might as well pop the question.
My answer is yes, I will be your favorite and (hopefully) most reliable handicapper until death do us part.
Miami (-2.5) - At NY Jets - 37.5
At Dallas (-7) - Tampa Bay - 46.5
At NY Giants (-4) - Detroit - 41
At Baltimore (-6) - Philadelphia - 40.5
Green Bay (-6) - At Chicago - 39.5
At Minnesota (-4.5) - Indianapolis - 45.5
At Buffalo (-10) - Cleveland - 41.5
At Kansas City (-5.5) - Tennessee - 42
At Houston (-6) - Jacksonville - 39.5
At Arizona (-2.5) - New Orleans - 50.5
At Atlanta (-13.5) - San Francisco - N/A
New England (-3) - At Denver - 44
Oakland (-3) - At San Diego - 49.5
Pittsburgh (-3) - At Cincinnati - 44.5
At Washington (-6.5) - Carolina - 51
New England -3 at Denver: New England went to Denver last year and lost, but it almost seems like that was a completely different Denver defense. People don’t realize that you can run on Denver this year and, even though they are still a great pass D, it’s still Tom Brady. New England is also a top 10 defense. Take the Pats, like most weeks.
Oakland at San Diego O/U 49.5: I honestly don’t know who will win this game, but I do know that this combined score is too high, so we’re gonna take the under here. Oakland can score, but Carr looked awful last week. It could be close, but it’ll stay under 49.5.
Detroit at New York Giants (-4): Giants are on a roll, winning 7 of their last 8 games with the only hiccup being two weeks ago versus the Steelers. Detroit is on their own winning streak, but those wins have come against teams like the Bears, the Saints, and the Jaguars. Nothing else really to say about this pick, just kind of a gut feeling, but you’ve learned to trust me, remember?
Questions, concerns, comments, or criticisms? @FFMilkman on Twitter!