As promised, I am here to deliver the updated odds on which player will be named the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP).
For the most part, (about 95%, actually) MVPs have been either quarterbacks or running backs, which seems to make the most sense. Quarterbacks and running backs tend to get all of the glory. Little known fact, a placekicker once won the MVP award: Mark Moseley of the Washington Redskins back in 1982 - granted it was a shortened season due to the strike.
As degenerate gamblers, we look to find the odds on just about anything, including MVP honors. In the last 7 years, 6 of 7 MVPs have been QBs. Can you name the lone wolf who wasn’t a gunslinger?
If you guessed Adrian Peterson, you would be correct. AP opened the season with a +4000 line to be named NFL MVP. In layman's terms, that means that you would have had to wager only $100 on AP in order to win $4,000. Pretty good return, right? Well that’s because MVPs are usually QBs.
The other 6 MVPs of the last 7 years and their odds to win MVP honors are as follows:
2016 Cam Newton +1500
2015 Aaron Rodgers +600
2014 Peyton Manning +600
2012 Aaron Rodgers +400
2011 Tom Brady +800
2010 Peyton Manning +5000
Hmm, 3 of the 4 mentioned are HoF bound for sure, with Newton still having plenty of time to construct his own Hall of Fame career. So basically, it’s safe to pick a probable Hall of Famer to win the MVP this year, right? A HoF-type player is totally the leading candidate for MVP in 2016, right?!
Well maybe not “nope”, but highly unlikely considering the leading candidate’s name:
I know, he’s having a great year, and maybe he’s finally turning into the QB the Falcons had hoped for. I don’t buy it. Ryan is really good, for now. If the Falcons blow up into despair like last year after a hot start, I don’t think many will be too surprised. The fact that Ryan is the current leading candidate for MVP is honors is a little funky though, considering his odds were +13,500 before the season and now sit at +450.
The funny part is, he’s not even the strangest name in the MVP discussion on the list. You still have those elite names such as Rodgers sitting at +650 (+500 before the season) Big Ben (+500, was +700 preseason), and Brady at +650 (was +1600 simply due to the suspension). We are also seeing Russell Wilson at +700 (previously +500), Ezekiel Elliott (I was wrong to doubt Lord Zeke) at +800 (previously +6000), and the wonkiest name on the list: Sam Bradford.
Notice I didn’t put Bradford’s odds? Yeah, it’s because I wanted him to have his own section because I was in disbelief when I saw his name as a top seven MVP candidate according to Vegas.
It HAS to be because the Vikings are undefeated, right? Not necessarily! Bradford, while not having eye-popping (get the pun???) statistics, is 4-0 as previously mentioned. He’s also completed 70.4% of his passes for 990 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs. That’s an impressive 109.8 QB rating. While Bradford may not be a MVP-caliber player in 99.9999999% of people’s minds, he is in the .0000001% of others (aka Vegas), and they usually know what they’re talking about.
“So Milk, you told us everyone else’s current and preseason odds, what are Wonky-eyed Bradford’s?” you may ask. Sam Bradford is still a long-shot to win MVP, currently sitting at a +1200 line, but he is still a viable candidate. His preseason odds? +22,500.
The NFL: no one will ever understand it.
Remember to tweet me your concerns of the future of the NFL or the world in general if Bradford wins MVP at @FFMilkman on Twitter or just a leave a grim comment about the future at the bottom of the article.