Welcome to the second installment of the Gambling Guidelines. Like that name? I just thought of it and it’s not even 9 AM yet.
Anyway, let’s review last week’s picks after a perfect 4/4:
MIN – 2.5 @ TEN: The week started off in a ringing fashion after Minnesota were able to secure the victory and cover the spread thanks to two defensive touchdowns. I realize that we got a little lucky on this pick, but sometimes luck is better than skill.
CHI @ HOU -6.5, Under 44: I feel like every time I looked at this game, Houston had the ball and were about to kick a field goal. Houston wasn’t covering the spread at the half, but ended up pulling away just enough to cover the spread and to clinch the under of 44 total points.
PIT -3 @ WASH: The spread for this game was a little confusing for me. I understand that Washington was technically a playoff team last year, but they weren’t good enough to only be an underdog by 3. Pittsburgh absolutely handled the Redskin defense, and we cashed out for a perfect weekend.
Now to this week’s spreads:
NYJ @ BUF +1.5
CIN @ PIT -3
TEN @ DET -6
BAL @ CLE +6.5
DAL @ WASH -3
NO @ NYG -4.5
SF @ CAR -13.5
MIA @ NE -6.5
KC @ HOU -2.5
SEA @ LA +3.5
TB @ ARZ -6.5
JAC @ SD -3
ATL @ OAK -4.5
IND @ DEN -6
GB @ MIN +2
PHILLY @ CHI -3
Picks of the week:
BAL @ CLE +6.5: I haaaate betting against the Ravens, since I'm, ya know, a Baltimore native and everything. However, I’m taking the Browns in this game because I know how close Cleveland-Baltimore games tend to be. On paper, Cleveland should be blown out, especially with their second string starting QB. Last year, however, both Browns-Ravens games came down to just a few points difference and I think this game will be no different. I’ll take Cleveland +6.5 at home to cover.
ATL @ OAK -4.5: Atlanta looked horrible defensively last week, and that game was at home. Oakland was able to match gun-slinging Drew Brees and snuck out of New Orleans with a win after converting a risky 2-point conversion. Simply put, I think Oakland should be able to cover this game at home. Atlanta has to travel out of their time zone, and that’s more of a concern than people give credit for. Give me Oakland at -4.5 with confidence.
SEA -3.5 @ LA: Well LA looked awful. I’m not entirely sure they passed the ball forward last week and that was against San Francisco. In case you didn’t know, Seattle is much better on defense and the fact that Russell Wilson might not play (though it lokos like he should) doesn’t really concern me. If Carlos Hyde alone is enough to beat LA, I think Thomas Rawls/Christine Michael and a stellar defense is more than enough to cover the 3.5 spread and gets me excited in the pants just a little.
KC +2.5 @ HOU: Last week, Houston was probably my most confident pick. This week, not so much. I’m not convinced Osweiler has grown enough to read such a blitzing defense like KC and I think the Chiefs will be able to right their defensive wrongs they had against San Diego. Game-manager Alex Smith to cover!
Any questions? Email, comment, or tweet me at @FFMilkMan!