Recently, Donald wrote an article titled “One Man’s Trash is Another Man’s Treasure.” Unfortunately, sometimes in life you have to accept the purely negative side of things. This article is simply about the fantasy trash that will be drafted too high this season. I can guarantee that none of these players will be on any of my teams this season, despite having some high praises from the fantasy community.
If you know me, you know that one of my favorite shows is Seinfeld. If you are a fan of the show, you will undoubtedly recall the episode in which George saw a half-eaten chocolate éclair in the garbage can and decided to eat it. This metaphor is pretty simple to understand; even if something looks delicious, it’s still trash, so don’t eat it.
Let’s talk about the trash you may find to look good enough to pick out of the garbage can.
Bortles had an outstanding year in 2015, throwing for over 4,400 yards and 35 TDs. He has a great duo of receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns and a solid tight end in Julius Thomas. He’s currently a top 10 QB for most fantasy outlets including ESPN (10th) and my esteemed colleague’s rankings (7th). While I do believe Bortles can be a solid fantasy starter in 2016, I’m not so sure he’s worth picking over established veterans such as Tony Romo, Eli Manning, or Philip Rivers, or even newcomers such as Marcus Mariota and Tyrod Taylor.
Bortles can sling the ball, that’s for sure, but it’s fair to say that there is more than a little suspicion that his stats will regress in 2016. So while I don’t hate the idea of drafting Bortles in general, I do hate his asking price.
Murray is a relative newcomer in the fantasy world, as this will only be his third year in the league. Last season, he finished the 2015 campaign with 1,066 yards, six TDs, and 41 receptions. Those are solid numbers for a running back projected in the RB20 range, but I will not be drafting him.
Murray slowed down last year and there are serious concerns out of Oakland that he can’t be a 3-down back. He also averaged a shaky-at-best 4.0 yards per carry last season. Rookie running back Deandre Washington is getting a lot of looks early in training camp and word on the street (Twitter) is that Washington may even take over by the end of the year.
As Ravens fans remember, Forsett’s season came to an end last year after landing on the IR - like most of the starting team. This gave the Ravens a look at Buck Allen who, aside from fumbling issues, compiled some pretty decent fantasy stats for owners who were fortunate enoug to scoop him off of the waiver wire.
Forsett is getting old and the Ravens backfield may just be the most crowded in the league. Buck Allen is still pushing for the starting role, rookie back Kenneth Dixon is expected to get some opportunities, as the coaching staff seems incredibly excited about him. We can’t forget Towson University Alumni Terrance West (I may have gone there) as a candidate to steal some carries, who apparently has been a pleasant surprise thus far in training camp. The starting gig seems to be a committee at the very minimum this season, so I will be steering clear of all of the above.
I don’t understand this year’s hype behind Baldwin. Yes, he finished the season with 78 receptions for 1,069 yards and 14 TDs, but do you realize his production by game value? In weeks 3-8, he caught no more than 3 passes in a game and had 1 total TD over that period.
It was only after Jimmy Graham was hurt and the offensive scheme began to change that Baldwin exploded. In weeks 10-17, he caught at least 4 passes each game, with an average of almost 6 each week. But the real fantasy value came in his 12 TDs in that timeframe. That has touchdown regression written all over it. With the return of Jimmy Graham, Baldwin will see some more targets than pre-Graham injury, but to expect Baldwin to repeat last year’s success in asinine.
Ted Ginn Jr.
TED GINN IS NOT A REAL RECEIVER. His hands are made of stone and he runs terrible routes. I have no idea how Ginn managed 10 TDs. I guess the defense just decided not to cover him because they assumed he would drop every pass? 'Cause that’s what I’d do.
Regardless, there will be that one person in your league who takes Ginn as a top 40 WR and fully expects to have his TD production of last year. Just promise me not to be that guy. Save him for WR7 for your own team.
As always, feel free to comment, tweet, call, or dm me your innermost thoughts at @FFMilkman.